| Party | Seats | % | Change in Seats | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 192 | 44.4% | +39 | 93.2% | 6.3% |
| Conservative | 118 | 37.8% | -1 | 0.1% | 4.1% |
| Bloc | 26 | 6.3% | -7 | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 6 | 6.7% | -19 | N/A | N/A |
| Green | 1 | 1.4% | -1 | N/A | N/A |
| People’s | 0 | 2.7% | -2.2% | N/A | N/A |
Wow. What a stunning collapse of support for PP! This poll puts the Libs chances of winning at 99.5% vs. 4.2% for the Cons. Even this polling average has their chances at 78% and still trending upward. Just polling/keep pushing (etc) but this seems like it’s Carney’s to lose at this point.
Really sucks that the NDP is at risk of losing official party status though.
Well maybe they won’t stick with a dog shit leader next time. Honestly, they need better leadership in that party. Other than Charlie Angus, who in that party has any credibility? I don’t even know anybody else in that party federally.
Carney was born of humble beginnings, is an exceptional academic, knows how to create strong partnerships with like-minded countries, can be strong and assertive while remaining diplomatic and has a good track record for being competent and effective.
He’s like the polar opposite of Trump and it is why people flocked to him. People are now disgusted by Trump and anything that resembles him (PP).
I’m so glad to see this. pp is such a disgusting weasel who would sell us out for his own gain. Danielle Smith, Premiere of Alberta, said this about him:
“So I would think that there’d be, there’s probably still always going to be areas that are skirmishes or disputes about particular industries when it comes to the border, but I would say, on balance, the perspective that Pierre would bring would be very much in sync with, I think…the new direction in America,” she added. “And I think we’d have a really great relationship for the period of time they’re both in.”
Emphasis mine.
Glad to see the conservatives fall, sad to see the NDP drop.
Wow rip ndp
People have given up on NDP. Wow.
I think it’s more about this moment than people giving up on the NDP long term. It’s probably more ABC than anti-NDP. Many see PP as a threat to the country, or least much less able to address the current crisis, so they’re aligning with the best chance to defeat him.
It’s ABC, but it’s also the result of Singh. NDP was neck and neck with Liberals when the Liberals were polling poorly, which could’ve been the NDP’s chance. If Singh still doesn’t get replaced after this election, I don’t think the NDP is going to fare well.
I’d be surprised if Singh stayed on if they do actually lose official party status. Realistically though, they were close when the Libs were facing an historic, crushing loss. They were never anywhere near a position to form government based on polling.
Sorry to call you out like this, but what a ridiculous interpretation. That is absolutely not what is happening. This is purely an artifact of FPTP being a useless system.
That’s a significant factor but Jagmeet being a lib-light is also a contributor. He has to go. We need someone with bold, populist, unashamedly left ideas.
i am glad to see the drop in support of PP, but at the same time it is still scary that they are still polling 37% at this point.
how much bad things need to happen in order for Conservative voter to SEE it!! only -1 seat?? com’on. can we tell them that Trump is so gonna make fun of us with a PM called “PP”…on the other hand, sad to see NDP is dropping… i was hoping they will pull up too… but man … -19 is huge! I was really hoping NDP will pull up and pass Bloc at least…
let’s hope the trend will get better in the coming 30 days or so.
