There is also another layer of convoluted-ness to my understanding. Even though the homophobic churches won and prevented removal of anti-gay language, the homophobic churches in the US are all pissy as no one is enforcing it. Progressive UMC churches openly ignore and break the homophobic rules.

So the UMC has been bleeding churches from both ends in the US. I believe most have been homophobic churches running away because no one is enforcing their bigotry, but some are progressive churches which have left because they did not want to appear to support the bigotry still in the doctrine and to avoid any risk of the bigotry being enforced on them in the future.