I’ve owned my switch since 2017 and Ive never used Nintendo’s online services, I think they’re actually DNS blocked or if I forgot to DNS block them then my console might be banned but it makes no difference to me, I get an error it can’t connect to Nintendo when I start some games but other than having to click past that it’s smooth sailing.
You can still have multiple users/profiles/saves without needing to link Nintendo accounts at all.
I think most of what I do with it now I could still do in 20 years although if I’m being totally honest one thing I use a lot is moonlight to remote stream games off my desktop and Im sure you could use it with current Gen PCs to stream but I’m guessing the between wifi and video codec standerds changing over time i dont think moonligbt will still work in 2044…but thats probably a bit outside the scope of your question.
An easier way to put it, the switch is currently probably the best modern console for piracy and that should tell you a lot about how little it depends on any kind of (not already cracked) authentication
MeGusta and Im pretty sure all other x265 groups aren’t really considered official scene releases and usually the sources are the larger x264 scene releases. I’ve found that you can get the same if not better results as MeGusta encoding with a simple -cq 27 with the nvenc_h265 encoder which is reasonably fast.
A good portion of the world thats pirating media is playing it cheap junk with 10+ year old CPUs that can’t handle x265, most do not have terabytes of media they just watch and delete so overall size isnt a huge issue, most likely when a new codec does become more mainstream, it won’t actually mean smaller releases anyway, it will just mean better quality ones.
In the 00’s the standard everyone used was 800mb DivX because thats the size CD-Rs came in, over time, going into the 2010s we got x264 releases but the targets were around 4-8gb usually and by that point the size of optical media didn’t really matter since flash drives are cheap and reusable and overall internet speeds for people continues to increase as well so its more likely that when the day comes, the scene will probably coalesce around something like 8-16gb per release.