Let’s not pretend that religious stewardship of any state has ever not resulted in human rights abuses. The idea of a caliphate in Germany should rightly horrify the German people. Fundamentalist Islam (or Christianity) can easily cite scripture to justify child brides, executions, and domestic violence.
So let’s flip the question; why aren’t you horrified at the idea of a caliphate in Germany, and seemingly hand waving the atrocious results it would bring?
I imagine it varies depending on the financial institution. Seems crazy though to issue certified checks without an expiration. I don’t recall the last time I saw one printed without one, but I don’t see many in any given year.
Sometimes I like to feel fancy and call them negotiable instruments. Ya know, like trombones on a debate team, but with money.
Right, I understand the distinction. What I’m saying is that at my credit union, I can report that a certified check has been lost. They have a waiting period of like 5 days and will then reissue the check. I mentioned my experience with the expired check because that is when I spoke to them about it.
No, my point is that the bank doesn’t need to be indemnified to cancel the first check and issue a second check. A certified check can be reported lost or stolen and reissued without a lot of fuss. It is the bank that holds the money drawn on for a certified account which they take out of your account. They haven’t sent it to escrow or something where there is risk of them being out 2x.
That’s odd. I had my bank issue a certified check to pay a contractor years ago. I forget what happened but they didn’t cash it within the expiration period so the bank cancelled it and returned the funds to my account. Generally a certified check just means the bank holds the funds separately from your account until the expiration date or it gets reported as lost or damaged. Or at least that is how my credit union handles them.
I was an operations director in a prior role and oversaw the design and construction of several buildings. The last building was about $70 million, and we spent around $6 million on the design and programming.
What most folks don’t understand is the scale of minutiae. I’ve spent an entire day of meetings hashing out floor box standards between all parties (IT, facilities, design, construction). The amount of preliminary site studies, permit planning, etc, that goes into hundreds of miles of rail, plus stations, interesting into existing infrastructure etc… It’s significant.
I’ve also overwhelmed fiber builds, and have seen costs range upwards of $500k-$1m per mile of new fiber depending on if poles exist, or of trenching, right of way, permits, etc.
And all of this is just the tip of the iceberg for what goes into these plans.
I highly recommend Stephen Tetlock’s book, super forecasting, who is the sponsor of the project you mention.
One method of forecasting that he identified as effective was using a spreadsheet to record events that might occur over the next 6-18 months along with an initial probability based on good judgement and the factors you quoted. Then, every day look for new information that adjusts the forecast up or down by some, usually small percent. Repeat, and the goal is you will trend towards a reasonable %. I omitted many details but that was the jist.
Now, that’s for forecasting on a short ish timeframe. There is a place for more open ended reasoning and imagination, but you have to be careful not to fall prey to your own biases.
This particular forecast of OPs feels like it is ignoring several long running trends in technology adoption and user behavior without giving events that would address them, and forecasts something they care about doing better in the long-term, a source of bias to watch. I tend to agree with you that I think elements of this forecast are flawed.